Labour's polling just fine, actually
I promise I'm not just coping
If you have any interest in British politics, you’ve seen this graph:
You also saw half a billion columns about Labour’s inevitable electoral catastrophe and Reform’s or Green’s predestined victory. (I’m absolutely sick of those columns)
Maybe you even saw how the anxiety of the Parliamentary Labour Party over the polls can undermine the Government’s reforms.
The Labour party is getting WIPED OUT, apparently, years before the next election.
There’s one problem: this is the wrong way to look at the data. Here’s the right way:
Drawn this way, the data tells a different story: apart from the post-election honeymoon, nothing has changed in the polling. We’re still at the same level of increasing dissatisfaction with the party in power. The polling just snapped back to reflect this.
In other words, Labour’s polling is not yet important. Instead, we should look at how the party in power, which happens to be Labour, is polling. The party in power is polling about the same as before the election.
This is natural. Voters have party loyalty, but they are also not blind. In the long term, voters’ everyday reality wins over the excitement of a landslide election. The reality has not significantly changed yet, so voters’ opinion of the party in charge snapped back to where it was before the election.
Could we expect visible change yet?
Unlikely. The government is fixing boring things like “building regulations” and “the Green Book” and “nuclear energy regulations” and “fiscal rules” and “diplomatic relationships with Europe” that have long-term pay-offs. None of that is immediately visible to the majority of the population.
Some highlights off the top of my head:
Two-child benefit cap removal and free school meals. This will make a lot of difference to a relatively small number of kids, providing them with a better start in life. It’s both moral and financially prudent: healthier, better studying kids will pay more taxes years into the future. Invisible to most voters.
A £10bn deal with Norway to build frigates. The deal matters! It will provide jobs and prosperity in the supply chain. It’s a testament to how good British engineering still is and to how much trust Norway puts in us as an ally. Invisible to most voters.
Renters’ Rights Act. This will be visible and provide housing security to about 20% of people who are renting privately. It is now law, but the act will not be in force till May 2026, so it’s still invisible.
The newly announced planning reform. It will unblock millions of houses, and can end the housing crisis. It will also take a few years for new homes to hit the market. Again, invisible.
There are still more than three years till the next election. The changes will start to snowball and become visible.
Could the polling be different?
Maybe, but not significantly.
The Government could be a bit more inspiring and prolong the post-election euphoria. However, the Government’s challenges on communication and storytelling are such a common talking point that I have nothing to add, except that at the end of the day the living conditions win anyway.
The Government could launch more radical reforms, earlier, so the impacts would already be seen. I’d love to see this, but I also recognise the risk of another Liz Truss-like market run: previous governments have borrowed so much that even small changes to the amount of interest paid on borrowing have a large effect on the fiscal balance. I can see why Rachel Reeves is treading lightly.
It’s fine
Here’s my gift for my fellow Labour members and supporters this holiday season: stop worrying about the polling, it’s fine. A snapback is not a drop, it’s as inevitable as Boxing Day coming after Christmas. Enjoy the holidays!
Come 2026, we should start worrying about unhelpful party drama (local elections are not going to be pretty), picking the best possible policies for sustainable growth, and making the political discourse in this country healthier.
But for now—
Happy New Year!